MSNBC.com

Earlier this year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the fiscal 2001 surplus, including the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, would come in at a stunning $280 billion. But last week, reacting to the stagnant economy and the newly enacted tax rebates, the CBO sharply revised that figure down to a not-as-impressive $153 billion. This move suggested that the government would have to draw down about $9 billion of the Social Security surplus to fund this year's operations.

As the orgy of media coverage subsides over President Bush's first 100 days in office, debate will focus anew on the competing tax and spending plans. Both Democrats and Republicans are basing their grand fiscal plans on estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that the tireless U.S. economy will produce a $5.6 trillion government surplus between fiscal years 2002 and 2011.

Investors in Compaq Computer Corp. have been feeling anything but bullish of late. The stock of the personal computer giant has been halved since last summer. Last week, Compaq said it would cut 5,000 jobs, and miss its estimated first-quarter earnings by nearly a third.